🌍 Inside The Middle East — May 27
Israel-Palestine Ceasefire, Princess Latifa Images, Iran Election Fix, Oman Austerity Protests, Mysterious Airbase Linked to U.A.E.
Hello folks! Happy Thursday, hope we’re all doing well and ready for another Inside The Middle East!
Today we’ll visit Israel and Palestine for an update to events and the ceasefire that’s held so far; Dubai where images of Princess Latifa have emerged suggesting she’s still alive; Iran whose government approved mostly hard-line candidates for next month’s presidential election; Oman where nationwide protests have taken hold over austerity measures; and Yemen where a mysterious airbase developed off its south coast is linked to the U.A.E.
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Data Corner 🧮
A few datasets referenced in today’s edition…
Gaza Strip: Critical humanitarian crisis indicators, from the UN
Oman Economy: Stacks of economic data, from the International Monetary Fund
Shipping Traffic: Real-time and archival shipping data, from marrinetraffic.com
Israel-Palestine Ceasefire Holds, For Now
We start today with an update to the situation in Israel and Palestine. After 11 days of conflict that saw more than 250 deaths, the majority in Gaza, an Egypt-brokered ceasefire was agreed upon last Friday and has so far held. While specific terms are unclear, both sides agreed to a “mutual and unconditional’’ cessation of hostilities. International attention now turns to rebuilding Gaza, which has largely been left in ruins.
National governments have positioned themselves on different sides of the conflict including Ireland, whose parliament voted to condemn Israel’s “de facto annexation” of Palestinian land. It’s the first use of the phrase by a member of the EU pertaining to Israel. Joe Biden meanwhile followed a familiar pattern of recent U.S. presidents by supporting Israel’s right to defend itself, while more than 500 of his current and former staffers wrote an open letter urging him to do more to protect Palestinians and hold Israel accountable.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged the Biden administration will make “significant contributions” to rebuilding and dealing with the grave humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Biden has also maintained a commitment to a two-state solution, though that will be difficult considering the U.S. refuses to meet terrorist organization Hamas, which has tight control inside Gaza.
Video: New ‘mutual’ ceasefire declared
Instagram Images Appear of Princess Latifa
Now to Dubai where images of Princess Latifa, the daughter of the ruler of Dubai, were posted on Instagram. After a leaked video appeared to show Latifa being held captive by her own father in February, the UN demanded proof that Latifa was alive. If verified, the images would mark one of the few times the now 35-year-old Latifa has been photographed in public since she gained global recognition from her failed attempt to escape the U.A.E. in 2018.
The pictures were posted by Sioned Taylor, who identifies herself as a teacher at a state-run school in Dubai, according to Reuters. One of the images includes an advert for a the movie Demon Slayer: Mugen Train in the background, which was released in the U.A.E. on May 13. Friends of Latifa confirmed the images are indeed real. But questions remain around the conditions of the princess’ confinement.
Last Time on Inside The Middle East…
🌍 Israel-Palestine Violence Explained — May 13
🌍 Inside The Middle East — April 29
🌍 Inside The Middle East — April 22
🌍 Inside The Middle East — April 15
Hardliners Approved for Iran Presidential Election
Now to Iran where the country’s Guardian Council has been accused of fixing next month’s presidential election. Arguably Iran’s most powerful body, the council consists of 12 jurists who oversee elections and ultimately decide which candidates can run. Ahead of the election on June 18, the council barred several prominent contenders aligned with current president Hassan Rouhani, who is seen as a moderate and cannot stand again after serving two terms. Led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the council approved mostly hard-line candidates. Among the disqualified candidates, who are not allowed to appeal the council’s decision, was former hard-line president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Potential candidates generally fall into three camps: Hard-liners who want to expand the country’s nuclear program and confront the world; moderates who want to maintain the status-quo; and reformists who want to completely change Iran’s system of government. Guardian Council spokesperson Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei said “there is no necessity for the council to make decisions based on political groups or factions” since it only considers the constitution.
Omanis Protest Austerity Measures
To Oman where nationwide protests over economic reforms have followed last month’s introduction of a value-added tax. Oman’s economy shrunk by 6.4 percent in 2020, according to the IMF, mostly due to Covid restrictions and slashed oil prices.
As a small energy producer with high debt, Oman’s economy is especially vulnerable to swings in oil prices and external shocks such as the pandemic. According to one analyst, the government faces a deficit of around $2bn/£1.4bn, and the VAT alone could net the government an extra $780m/£550m this year. An income tax is also expected next year.
The protests have brought out a mass police presence, with a mixture of peaceful and forceful clashes. After initially arresting protestors and spraying tear gas, police later handed out water and were generally calm. However, given Oman’s tightly controlled private and state media, reports on the protests have been limited.
Mysterious Airbase Linked to U.A.E.
We finish in Yemen, where reports suggest the U.A.E. is building an airbase on Mayun Island. Located in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the volcanic island sits two miles off the southwest coast of Yemen, and is a crucial shipping passage for energy shipments and commercial cargo. The runway’s length (6,070ft) and location would allow whoever’s in control of it to easily launch air strikes, transport arms and accommodate surveillance.
While no country has actually claimed the development, officials in Yemen’s internationally recognized government said the U.A.E. was behind the base. Prior shipping traffic also points to the Emiratis. The construction comes at a time when Yemen’s ongoing civil war continues to ravage the country, with around 80 percent of the 24 million population in need of humanitarian assistance.
See you tomorrow for Picks of the Week! 👋