📊 Nevada Caucuses Preview
Hello! And welcome to a Nevada Preview Edition of Inside The Newsroom 🥳. We head into the penultimate contest before Super Tuesday, where 14 more states will vote and where a whopping 34 percent of the total delegates will be up for grabs. Michael Bloomberg finally joined the debate stage on Wednesday night for some actual scrutiny, and sweet mother of Jesus did Queen Elizabeth aka #TheIceberg derail his cruise through the race until this point. We’re now about 24 hours before the good people of Nevada begin caucusing, so let’s dig into the numbers to see who’s up and who’s down heading into Saturday. But first, here’s the best bits from Wednesday night and my top five takeaways. If you know someone that might like weekly roundups of the Democratic race, please pass the newsletter on 🙏
Elizabeth Warren didn’t receive the bump in the polls she expected, but she may have just ended Michael Bloomberg’s campaign
Bernie has opened up a double-digit lead in Nevada and remains on course to win the most delegates
Trouble is brewing for Bernie though, as five of the six candidates said they’ll let the DNC’s rules play out in the case that no one candidate secures a majority
Biden, Klobuchar and Buttigieg are trying to re-raise their sails after falling flat in Wednesday’s debate
Andrew Yang’s not going anywhere and joined CNN as a commentator. And he succumbed to support for a podcast, which he announced he’ll be doing very soon
Elizabeth Warren
There’s only one place to start and that’s with the undeniable winner of the debate Queen Elizabeth, and boy did Her Majesty come out swinging. The Bloomberg piñata was there to be hit and my God did Liz pummel the racist billionaire over and over. First she lured us all into thinking she was talking about Trump when describing who she’s running against as a “billionaire who calls women fat broads and horse-faced lesbians”, and then BAM she revealed she was actually talking about Mini Mike to her right. But she wasn’t done. She then did the moderators’ jobs by hammering Bloomberg on his multiple NDAs and asked him on live TV to unmuzzle the women he’s bound to silence. But she wasn’t done! Then came her evisceration of Buttigieg’s healthcare plans, describing it as a “powerpoint presentation”, and then reducing Klobuchar’s as being able to fit on a damn post-it note. There was a clear winner from Wednesday, and it was Elizabeth motherfucking Warren.
So what did her Jon Snow-like performance do for her coffers? According to her campaign, Warren had her best single day of fundraising after the debate, and has raised a ginormous $17 million so far in February. But there hasn’t been enough time for a significant bump in the polls, which will leave her campaign on tenterhooks to see what her best debate will do to her delegate count. Still a lot of work to do, but as Warren has repeated, her campaign is built for the long haul, and she just doubled her number of lives.
Warren’s Numbers
Iowa: 18% (3rd) — result
New Hampshire: 9.2% (4th) — result
Nevada: 12% (4th)
South Carolina: 7.2% (6th)
Nationally: 12% (4th)
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Bernie Sanders
Another solid performance for the frontrunner, which was all he needed. Bloomberg’s introduction to the stage took most of the heat Bernie had faced until now off of him, allowing him to go relatively unscathed, incredibly rare for someone with a double digit lead. To be fair, the more attacks Bernie receives, the higher his numbers seem to climb. But Bernie’s biggest problem came illuminatingly clear right at the end of the debate.
Chuck Todd, who shouldn’t even be allowed to moderate the debates, asked all six candidates whether the person with the most delegates heading into the Democratic convention should be the nominee. All but Bernie answered no, which was the first time the DNC’s plans to screw over Bernie once again were openly revealed. DNC rules state about 500 ‘Superdelegates’ will be able to vote for their favored candidate in the case where no candidate has secured a majority, aka a contested convention. And Bernie’s greatest fears are starting to edge toward reality — FiveThirtyEight is for the first time projecting that no one candidate will secure that majority.
Bernie’s Numbers
Iowa: 26.2% (2nd) — result
New Hampshire: 25.7% (2nd) — result
Nevada: 26.5% (1st)
South Carolina: 20.3% (2nd)
Nationally: 25.3% (1st)
Mike Bloomberg
One word: devastating. Devastating! Not enough? How about three more: modern charisma vacuum. That’s how bad Bloomberg’s debate performance was, as he was cut up and flayed by Queen Elizabeth on numerous occasions. First came his past comments describing women in abhorrent terms (see above), then came the inevitable blows on his support for stop-and-frisk while mayor of New York City, and then came the mother of all haymakers when Warren tied him up with chains on his multiple NDAs for previous sexual harassment claims. What’s remarkable is that Bloomberg had no response and just stood there like a wooden scarecrow. It makes you think whether he’ll even turn up to the next debate. What’s the point when you can buy more than $409 million on TV ads from a $60 billion fortune? So where does Mini Mike go from here?
The polls suggest a halt to Bloomberg’s meteoric rise both nationally and in Nevada, but we won’t get a chance to see whether his ads have worked, as Bloomberg isn’t even on tomorrow’s ballot. He’ll officially enter the race on Super Tuesday. But don’t worry, he’ll still be able to pay workers $2,500 to post positive comments about him on social media. So if you need some cash and don’t mind selling out on all your morals, you know where he’s at. The one positive thing Mike has done since entering the race is unite the party. It just turns out that he’s united everyone against him. And I’ll leave you with my favorite post-debate takedown from the one and only Van Jones…
Bloomberg’s Numbers
Iowa: Did not contest
New Hampshire: Did not contest
Nevada: 8.7% (7th)
South Carolina: 9.4% (4th)
Nationally: 16.1% (3rd)
The Other Three
Joe Biden kind of just floated through the debate like a piece of driftwood. He didn’t really land any significant blows, nor did he receive any. But perhaps that’s exactly what he needed after tanking in the polls since his collapse in Iowa — Biden has fallen 10 points nationally since the Iowa Caucuses on Feb 3. Heading into Nevada, the former vice-president is projected to finish second, closely followed Queen Elizabeth and Buttigieg. Talking of whom, Buttigieg spent much of the night tangling with Elena, sorry, Amy Klobuchar. If you’re not a fan of Mayor Pete, it was a performance filled with more empty policies, but another polished performance for his supporters. And he weirdly described his campaign as the one for voters who couldn’t decide between Bernie and Bloomberg, which summed up his night from the back benches and away from the action. As for Klobuchar, she had an equally flat night after 10 days of “Klomentum” from her third-place finish in New Hampshire. The thing about public debates, though, is that you can’t throw staplers at people who say nasty things about you, which is too bad, because Elena could’ve done with one after #TheIceberg’s post-it note line. The Minnesotan senator’s almost impossible task of winning the nomination will die in the next few weeks, in my humble opinion. And a quick line on Tom Steyer, the other billionaire in the race (though he’s much nicer and actually has some good ideas), who’s polling at 10.9 percent and 15.6 percent in Nevada and South Carolina respectively, and is set to frustrate the moderates whose votes he’s set to take from them.
Biden’s Numbers
Iowa: 15.8% (4th) — result
New Hampshire: 8.4% (5th) — result
Nevada: 15.3% (2nd)
South Carolina: 24.3% (1st)
Nationally: 16.6% (2nd)
Buttigieg’s Numbers
Iowa: 26.2% (1st) — result
New Hampshire: 24.4% (2nd) — result
Nevada: 13.8% (3rd)
South Carolina: 9.2% (5th)
Nationally: 10.6% (5th)
Klobuchar’s Numbers
Iowa: 12.3% (5th) — result
New Hampshire: 19.8% (3rd) — result
Nevada: 10.6% (6th)
South Carolina: 6.5% (7th)
Nationally: 5.6% (6th)
Next Elections…
We have two major elections from around the world this weekend, where the results in Iran’s parliamentary elections will have repercussions felt around the world, and where Togo’s presidential election will be less felt, unless you’re in Togo of course. If that’s not enough, check out my newsletters on the elections in Ireland, Cameroon and Azerbaijan, Peru and Taiwan from the past couple of months.