š Nevada Caucuses Preview
Hello! And welcome to a Nevada Preview Edition of Inside The Newsroom š„³. We head into the penultimate contest before Super Tuesday, where 14 more states will vote and where a whopping 34 percent of the total delegates will be up for grabs. Michael Bloomberg finally joined the debate stage on Wednesday night for some actual scrutiny, and sweet mother of Jesus did Queen Elizabeth aka #TheIceberg derail his cruise through the race until this point. Weāre now about 24 hours before the good people of Nevada begin caucusing, so letās dig into the numbers to see whoās up and whoās down heading into Saturday. But first, hereās the best bits from Wednesday night and my top five takeaways. If you know someone that might like weekly roundups of the Democratic race, please pass the newsletter on š
Elizabeth Warren didnāt receive the bump in the polls she expected, but she may have just ended Michael Bloombergās campaign
Bernie has opened up a double-digit lead in Nevada and remains on course to win the most delegates
Trouble is brewing for Bernie though, as five of the six candidates said theyāll let the DNCās rules play out in the case that no one candidate secures a majority
Biden, Klobuchar and Buttigieg are trying to re-raise their sails after falling flat in Wednesdayās debate
Andrew Yangās not going anywhere and joined CNN as a commentator. And he succumbed to support for a podcast, which he announced heāll be doing very soon
Elizabeth Warren
Thereās only one place to start and thatās with the undeniable winner of the debate Queen Elizabeth, and boy did Her Majesty come out swinging. The Bloomberg piƱata was there to be hit and my God did Liz pummel the racist billionaire over and over. First she lured us all into thinking she was talking about Trump when describing who sheās running against as a ābillionaire who calls women fat broads and horse-faced lesbiansā, and then BAM she revealed she was actually talking about Mini Mike to her right. But she wasnāt done. She then did the moderatorsā jobs by hammering Bloomberg on his multiple NDAs and asked him on live TV to unmuzzle the women heās bound to silence. But she wasnāt done! Then came her evisceration of Buttigiegās healthcare plans, describing it as a āpowerpoint presentationā, and then reducing Klobucharās as being able to fit on a damn post-it note. There was a clear winner from Wednesday, and it was Elizabeth motherfucking Warren.
So what did her Jon Snow-like performance do for her coffers? According to her campaign, Warren had her best single day of fundraising after the debate, and has raised a ginormous $17 million so far in February. But there hasnāt been enough time for a significant bump in the polls, which will leave her campaign on tenterhooks to see what her best debate will do to her delegate count. Still a lot of work to do, but as Warren has repeated, her campaign is built for the long haul, and she just doubled her number of lives.
Warrenās Numbers
Iowa: 18% (3rd) ā result
New Hampshire: 9.2% (4th) ā result
Nevada: 12% (4th)
South Carolina: 7.2% (6th)
Nationally: 12% (4th)
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Bernie Sanders
Another solid performance for the frontrunner, which was all he needed. Bloombergās introduction to the stage took most of the heat Bernie had faced until now off of him, allowing him to go relatively unscathed, incredibly rare for someone with a double digit lead. To be fair, the more attacks Bernie receives, the higher his numbers seem to climb. But Bernieās biggest problem came illuminatingly clear right at the end of the debate.
Chuck Todd, who shouldnāt even be allowed to moderate the debates, asked all six candidates whether the person with the most delegates heading into the Democratic convention should be the nominee. All but Bernie answered no, which was the first time the DNCās plans to screw over Bernie once again were openly revealed. DNC rules state about 500 āSuperdelegatesā will be able to vote for their favored candidate in the case where no candidate has secured a majority, aka a contested convention. And Bernieās greatest fears are starting to edge toward reality ā FiveThirtyEight is for the first time projecting that no one candidate will secure that majority.
Bernieās Numbers
Iowa: 26.2% (2nd) ā result
New Hampshire: 25.7% (2nd) ā result
Nevada: 26.5% (1st)
South Carolina: 20.3% (2nd)
Nationally: 25.3% (1st)
Mike Bloomberg
One word: devastating. Devastating! Not enough? How about three more: modern charisma vacuum. Thatās how bad Bloombergās debate performance was, as he was cut up and flayed by Queen Elizabeth on numerous occasions. First came his past comments describing women in abhorrent terms (see above), then came the inevitable blows on his support for stop-and-frisk while mayor of New York City, and then came the mother of all haymakers when Warren tied him up with chains on his multiple NDAs for previous sexual harassment claims. Whatās remarkable is that Bloomberg had no response and just stood there like a wooden scarecrow. It makes you think whether heāll even turn up to the next debate. Whatās the point when you can buy more than $409 million on TV ads from a $60 billion fortune? So where does Mini Mike go from here?
The polls suggest a halt to Bloombergās meteoric rise both nationally and in Nevada, but we wonāt get a chance to see whether his ads have worked, as Bloomberg isnāt even on tomorrowās ballot. Heāll officially enter the race on Super Tuesday. But donāt worry, heāll still be able to pay workers $2,500 to post positive comments about him on social media. So if you need some cash and donāt mind selling out on all your morals, you know where heās at. The one positive thing Mike has done since entering the race is unite the party. It just turns out that heās united everyone against him. And Iāll leave you with my favorite post-debate takedown from the one and only Van Jonesā¦
Bloombergās Numbers
Iowa: Did not contest
New Hampshire: Did not contest
Nevada: 8.7% (7th)
South Carolina: 9.4% (4th)
Nationally: 16.1% (3rd)
The Other Three
Joe Biden kind of just floated through the debate like a piece of driftwood. He didnāt really land any significant blows, nor did he receive any. But perhaps thatās exactly what he needed after tanking in the polls since his collapse in Iowa ā Biden has fallen 10 points nationally since the Iowa Caucuses on Feb 3. Heading into Nevada, the former vice-president is projected to finish second, closely followed Queen Elizabeth and Buttigieg. Talking of whom, Buttigieg spent much of the night tangling with Elena, sorry, Amy Klobuchar. If youāre not a fan of Mayor Pete, it was a performance filled with more empty policies, but another polished performance for his supporters. And he weirdly described his campaign as the one for voters who couldnāt decide between Bernie and Bloomberg, which summed up his night from the back benches and away from the action. As for Klobuchar, she had an equally flat night after 10 days of āKlomentumā from her third-place finish in New Hampshire. The thing about public debates, though, is that you canāt throw staplers at people who say nasty things about you, which is too bad, because Elena couldāve done with one after #TheIcebergās post-it note line. The Minnesotan senatorās almost impossible task of winning the nomination will die in the next few weeks, in my humble opinion. And a quick line on Tom Steyer, the other billionaire in the race (though heās much nicer and actually has some good ideas), whoās polling at 10.9 percent and 15.6 percent in Nevada and South Carolina respectively, and is set to frustrate the moderates whose votes heās set to take from them.
Bidenās Numbers
Iowa: 15.8% (4th) ā result
New Hampshire: 8.4% (5th) ā result
Nevada: 15.3% (2nd)
South Carolina: 24.3% (1st)
Nationally: 16.6% (2nd)
Buttigiegās Numbers
Iowa: 26.2% (1st) ā result
New Hampshire: 24.4% (2nd) ā result
Nevada: 13.8% (3rd)
South Carolina: 9.2% (5th)
Nationally: 10.6% (5th)
Klobucharās Numbers
Iowa: 12.3% (5th) ā result
New Hampshire: 19.8% (3rd) ā result
Nevada: 10.6% (6th)
South Carolina: 6.5% (7th)
Nationally: 5.6% (6th)
Next Electionsā¦
We have two major elections from around the world this weekend, where the results in Iranās parliamentary elections will have repercussions felt around the world, and where Togoās presidential election will be less felt, unless youāre in Togo of course. If thatās not enough, check out my newsletters on the elections in Ireland, Cameroon and Azerbaijan, Peru and Taiwan from the past couple of months.