📊 New Hampshire: What Next for Each Democrat?
Hello! Welcome to another edition of Inside The Newsroom. Sadly no podcast today 🙁. I was due to talk to Paula Jean Swearengin about starring in the Netflix documentary Knock Down The House alongside Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as well as her second run for U.S. Senate this fall, but she’s a busy girl and we’ve rescheduled for next week. Instead, let’s try and ignore what the hell happened (or what didn’t happen) in Iowa on Monday night, and look forward to what’s next for each of the Democratic contenders for president.
Pete Buttigieg: Rising Star or One Hit Wonder?
Despite the complete ineptitude of the Iowa Democratic Party to run a set of caucuses, and the flood of conspiracy theories that have accompanied Monday night’s events, let’s work with what we know. While the last few results trickle in, which itself is at the center of the conspiracy debate, we know that Buttigieg is winning with 26.21 percent of the state’s delegates, a 0.09 percent lead over Bernie Sanders.
Heading into the Iowa Caucuses, Mayor Pete was polling at an average of 16 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, placing him in third place. The tricky situation the Buttigieg campaign found themselves in was that they knew third place wasn’t good enough, even for an upstart mayor of a town of a little more than 100,000 people. The reasons being a) Iowa’s location and demographics are very similar to Buttigieg’s home state of Indiana and b) Buttigieg was polling at less than five percent in South Carolina, one of the many states where he’s close to zero among people of color. But that’s the magic of Iowa in a nutshell. As we’ve seen with countless other candidates over the years, a strong performance in Iowa can catapult a candidate to the top, and Buttigieg has certainly rode the “media bump” this week, even if he won by the slimmest of margins.
Heading into Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire — thank God it’s a primary — and Buttigieg’s poll numbers have shot up to 19 percent, overtaking Joe Biden in the process. But just as Pete’s campaign will start to really believe it has a shot at the nomination, a large projected win for Bernie could pop the Buttigieg bubble.
Credit: The Guardian 👇
Buttigieg’s Numbers
Iowa: 26% (+10) — 1st
New Hampshire: 19% — 2nd
Nevada: 8% — 4th
South Carolina: 6% — 6th
National: 8% — 5th
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Bernie Sanders: Finishing Off What He Started
Although it looks like Bernie will finish second in Iowa, the Sanders campaign can easily make the argument that they’re the real winners. Firstly, with 99 percent of precincts reporting, Bernie lost out by a wafer thin margin, just as he did in 2016. But unlike last time, Bernie will leave Iowa with a sizeable lead over the establishment’s favorite candidate, and is set to grow that lead further in New Hampshire — Bernie currently has a whopping 13 point lead over Biden.
No matter how one tries to spin Biden’s performance in Iowa, Sanders’ biggest rival had a terrible night. For someone with such large name recognition across the nation, but specifically in the Midwest and the Rustbelt, there’s no escaping that the Biden campaign greatly underperformed. With Buttigieg surging in the polls, Bernie’s campaign will still want Biden to hang around and continue to split the centrist vote between himself, Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. And lastly, Bernie’s main USP has long been his willingness to stand up to the establishment and relating to real people. What real people dislike the most is the threat of being screwed over, and after the DNC literally conspired against him in 2016, and now the smelliness surrounding Monday’s results, Bernie’s fundraising is set to soar. Heading into New Hampshire, Bernie now stands a a 46 percent chance of winning the nomination.
Credit: FiveThirtyEight 👇
Bernie’s Numbers
Iowa: 26% (+4) — 2nd
New Hampshire: 26% — 1st
Nevada: 24% — 1st
South Carolina: 27% — 2nd
National: 21% — 2nd
Joe Biden: A Campaign In Flames?
Could it have gone any worse for the former vice president? Of the top four candidates, Biden was the only one to underperform his poll numbers, claiming 16 percent of the vote, five points less than expected. Some outlets have described Biden’s campaign as being on life support, others have suggested his campaign will receive the springboard it needs once he enters his “firewall” in South Carolina, where he holds a 16-point lead. What we do know is that Biden’s still in the lead nationally and should have enough funds to enter Super Tuesday with real optimism. What we also know, though, is that his campaign will certainly have been rocked by the poor showing in Iowa, and an even tougher challenge awaits in New Hampshire.
Let’s talk hypothetically for a moment, which yes, I know is a terrible idea in politics, and assume the polls more of less hold up in New Hampshire to give Joe a third-place finish. If and when Buttigieg begins to stumble, the former vice president would be in a comfortable third position overall and ready to seize the middle ground once again. More cause for optimism is that Biden still holds a lead nationally, albeit by just three points. If Joe does want to win though, he may have to stop telling people who challenge him on policy to vote for somebody else.
Biden’s Numbers
Iowa: 16% (-5) — 4th
New Hampshire: 13% — 3rd
Nevada: 23% — 2nd
South Carolina: 33% — 1st
National: 24% — 1st
Elizabeth Warren: Doing Fine, Thanks For Asking
The forgotten figure from Monday is Elizabeth Warren, whose stellar performance in Iowa has gone under the radar. The Warren campaign outperformed the polls by 3.5 points for a solid third-place finish, but the Massachusetts senator continues to struggle to cut through and above her main rival Sanders. That was always going to be the biggest challenge for Warren, whether she could stand out enough to the progressive wing of the party. But Warren’s less-progressive-than-Bernie stances on issues including climate change and student debt, and a sexist smear on Bernie which immediately backfired, leave Warren with a mountain to climb.
Warren still has plenty to play for though. If she can just remain competitive in the race until the likes of Amy Klobuchar and Tulsi Gubbard inevitably drop out of the race, Warren would be the only women left in the race. I hate playing identity politics, but this will surely grow her support among voters determined to see the first female president. Heading into New Hampshire, she’s currently fourth with a projected 12 percent of the vote. It’s fair to say Warren is in a dogfight to survive.
Warren’s Numbers
Iowa: 18% (+3.5) — 3rd
New Hampshire: 13% — 4th
Nevada: 13% — 3rd
South Carolina: 8% — 4th
National: 13% — 3rd
The Others
Amy Klobuchar had an okayish night Monday, grabbing 12 percent of the state’s delegates. It’s hard to tell whether her campaign are happy, knowing they outperformed expectations while also knowing they’ve probably got no realistic shot at winning the nomination. Andrew Yang, who has earned respect across the party for pushing the significance of issues such as artificial intelligence, has already let go staffers after his poor performance in Iowa, and might be lucky to even make Super Tuesday, as his fundraising is likely to dry up once his supporters begin to switch to more likely winners. The same goes for Tom Steyer, except the billionaire might just pay his way through the primaries for the fun of it. Which brings us to Michael Bloomberg, who decided not to put his name on the ballot in Iowa or New Hampshire, but still managed to spend more than $300 million of his own money on TV ads heading into South Carolina.
Next week…
Expect a bumper election newsletter early next week. Ireland, Cameroon and Azerbaijan are all having general elections over the weekend, so we’ll explore what’s happening in each of those countries. Also next week, I’l hopefully finally speak to Paula Jean Swearingen and Brian Klaas, so keep an eye out lots of cool things coming your way.